To paraphrase Wesley Snipes as Blade in this summer’s blockbuster “Deadpool & Wolverine”: There’s only one “Barbenheimer.” There’s only ever gonna be one “Barbenheimer.”
Hollywood might never replicate the je ne sais quoi that prompted the explosion of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” double features, turning the box office battle between two very different films into a once-in-a-generation cinematic event. But multiplex owners are hoping that “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” achieve something close as the pink-and-green musical and the Colosseum-set action epic land in theaters on Nov. 22.
“It won’t happen in the same way, but the conversation around ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator’ is reminiscent of ‘Barbenheimer,’” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s director of movie analytics. “They’re fueling each other.”
Whether or not “Glicked” is the second coming of “Barbenheimer,” there’s mounting pressure on Thanksgiving movies — Disney’s “Moana 2” swims to the big screen on Nov. 27 — to deliver at the box office. October has been heavy on tricks and light on treats, with “Joker: Folie à Deux” tanking and “Venom: The Last Dance” falling short of other entries in the symbiote saga. And while December will offer “The Lion King” prequel “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” this Christmas season could be more muted since there’s no guaranteed billion-dollar blockbuster, à la “Avatar,” “Star Wars” or ‘“Spider-Man,” to close out 2024 and shrink the year-to-date deficit.
“The industry is looking at ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II’ and ‘Moana 2’ as a Holy Trinity of moviegoing,” says Robbins. “It’s hard to recall a Thanksgiving lineup with this much potential.”
All three are projected to open solidly with “Wicked” aiming for $80 million to $85 million over the weekend, “Gladiator II” looking to bring in $55 million to $65 million between Friday and Sunday, and “Moana 2” likely targeting above $100 million for the five days.
Cinema operators need patrons to gorge on film offerings to salvage a lackluster year at the movies. Overall domestic box office revenues are down more than 11% from 2023 and nearly 27% from 2019, according to Comscore. This time last year, exhibitors were grappling with lighter release calendars amid strike-related delays. Now, they’re contending with the residual effects of the months-long production stoppage.
“There’s a lack of momentum going into Thanksgiving, but the marketplace works when there’s something for everyone — and this Thanksgiving there’s something for everyone,” says Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution for Paramount, the studio behind “Gladiator II.”
Turkey Day has historically been a busy time at the movies. The holiday hit a high-water mark in 2018 with $315 million in grosses across all films, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” and “Creed II.” Since COVID, though, Thanksgivings have mostly been meh, with more bombs (Disney Animation’s “Strange World” and “Wish”) than winners (Marvel’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”). Last year’s holiday was one of the worst in modern history, with ticket sales capping off at $125 million. There’s optimism that this year’s lineup could reverse the downward trend.
“It’s looking like the biggest Thanksgiving we’ve ever had,” says Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer of the Texas-based Flix Brewhouse cinema chain. “You can make up a lot of ground very quickly with three big movies.”
Recent misfires like “Joker: Folie à Deux” and Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt’s romantic action-comedy “The Fall Guy” have punctuated a sobering post-pandemic trend — and proven that nothing is sure-fire at the box office.
So “Moana 2” ought to be another smash for Disney following the mega successes of June’s “Inside Out 2” ($1.6 billion) and July’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($1.3 billion). But the “Moana” follow-up was conceived as a television show for Disney+ before it was retooled into a movie. Will it have the quality, and more importantly, bangers like “How Far I’ll Go,” to recapture the zeitgeist-piercing charm of the original, which is one of the most streamed films of all time?
For “Wicked,” starring Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, aka the Wicked Witch of the West, and Ariana Grande as Glinda the Good, hype is high — and marketing efforts are rivaling the ubiquity of the “Barbie” campaign. However, Jon M. Chu’s two-part take on the long-running Broadway hit has to combat the commercial slump of stage-to-screen adaptations. Newer attempts like Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” remake, Chu’s “In the Heights,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “Cats” and “The Color Purple” all fizzled at the box office despite being based on popular productions.
“Gladiator II,” too, must prove to audiences there’s a reason to return to the arena a quarter century after the first film became a Colosseum-sized blockbuster. Director Ridley Scott has assembled the buzzy cast of Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington. Yet legacy sequels can’t cash in on brand recognition alone. For every “Top Gun: Maverick” or “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” there’s an “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”-level dud.
“We feel we’re the standout film for adult audiences,” Aronson says of the “Gladiator” sequel. “Our film is unique in the marketplace as an R-rated follow-up to a best picture winner. It’s the biggest marketing campaign we’ve ever run.”
Elsewhere at the box office, there’s A24’s creepy “Heretic” (Nov. 8) to satiate horror buffs, Lionsgate’s holiday-centric “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (also Nov. 8) to captivate faith-based crowds and Dwayne Johnson’s Santa-themed “Red One” (Nov. 15) to appeal to everyone in between.
“We want movie options from morning to night,” says Randleman. “Studios have gotten into the habit of putting one gigantic movie on a weekend, but there’s enough space for all to thrive at the same time.”