Cinema owner Mark O’Meara was watching the Oscars in his living room when Sean Baker, accepting the best director trophy for “Anora,” made an impassioned plea for global audiences to support their local multiplex.
“I stood up and was jumping up and down. He’s talking about me and independent theaters,” O’Meara remembers telling his wife. Five years after COVID badly bruised the movie business, and two years after the strikes slowed the recovery, O’Meara needed no reminder that the industry remains seriously challenged — a fact that was illuminated during 2025’s glacial box office start. “It was an apprehensive couple of months,” he says.
This was weeks ago, in March, when theater attendance was flatlining and tentpoles like Disney’s “Snow White” and Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” just weren’t inspiring enough trips to the movies. But April’s one-two punch of “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sinners” have delivered a necessary boost of momentum. Now that people are getting back in the habit, Hollywood and exhibitors are encouraged about the pivotal summer movie season.
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“We’ve gone from guarded cynicism to flat-out optimism,” O’Meara says. “We’re all feeling like it’ll be a good summer.”
Summer movie season, which runs from May through August, kicks off the most profitable stretch for the movie business. Historically, the four-month period has accounted for $4 billion, or around 40% of the annual box office, as studios deliver new installments in their biggest properties. But in the post-pandemic era, domestic revenues have reached those heights only once, during the boom times of 2023’s “Barbenheimer.” This year, though, industry analysts believe the summer frame has the potential to be the strongest since the great COVID reset.
“This lineup reads like the greatest hits of summer movie season,” says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “Every demographic has a movie that’s tailor-made for them. I think summer could eclipse the $4 billion mark.”
Popcorn season should start with a bang rather than last year’s whimper of Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling’s action comedy “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.” This year, Disney started the party in May with Marvel’s “Thunderbolts,” which ignited to $76 million. Memorial Day should provide another jolt and maybe fuel a record with Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” and Paramount’s “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning.” From there, studios have scheduled a robust, genre-spanning slate of comic book adventures (“Superman,” “The Fantastic Four: First Steps”), family films (Pixar’s “Elio,” Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” and “The Bad Guys 2,” Paramount’s “Smurfs”) and action epics (“Jurassic World Rebirth,” “F1”). There’s also horror (“28 Years Later,” “M3GAN 2.0,” “I Know What You Did Last Summer,” “Weapons”) and nostalgia bait (“Karate Kid: Legends,” “Freakier Friday,” “The Naked Gun”) to round out the calendar.
“On paper, summer looks strong,” says analyst David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “Big franchise films are going to lead again.”
Hollywood regularly relies on superheroes, dinosaurs and death-defying stunts from Tom Cruise to propel the summer season, and overly familiar brands will again reign in terms of ticket sales. But industry watchers are hopeful there’s space for new properties, like the intergalactic adventure “Elio” and Brad Pitt’s racing drama “F1,” to flourish.
“We all point to the success of sequels and known IP, but at some point, you need new franchises,” says Andrew Cripps, Disney’s president of global theatrical distribution. “I think there’s room in the summer for an original movie to break out.”
Exhibitor Greg Heckmann, director of marketing at California-based Maya Cinemas, feels satisfied with the schedule, which he believes offers the level of consistency in output that’s been sorely missing in the past half-decade.
“Moviegoing is habitual,” he says. “We’re looking for a constant stream of titles to take the edge off the lulls from the first quarter.”
Though the country is potentially facing an economic downturn, industry analysts suggest that tough financial times won’t badly damage the cinema business. That’s because movie tickets are more affordable than other out-of-home entertainment.
“Typically, the box office has been recession proof,” says Alicia Reese, VP of equity research at Wedbush Securities. “People need escapism during tough times, and trips to the movies are relatively inexpensive outings.”