It looks like Hollywood and movie theaters are going to have a lot to be thankful for very soon. That’s because the Thanksgiving frame is shaping up to be an absolute juggernaut, with not one, not two, but three different films looking to sell a lot of tickets as we head into the holiday season, with Universal’s musical “Wicked” and Paramount’s long-awaited sequel “Gladiator II” leading the way. While the films couldn’t be more different on paper, early box office tracking suggests they have something in common. Namely, general audiences are very interested in both of them.
“Wicked” is currently tracking for an opening weekend of $80 million or more domestically, while “Gladiator II” is eyeing an opening in the $65 million range, per early tracking numbers provided by Deadline. It’s very early to start getting hyperbolic, but we could be looking at another Barbenheimer situation here. Last year, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Chrisotpher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” both had blockbuster debuts on the same weekend. They also went on to become some of the biggest films of 2023, with each of them scoring a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars as well. That would certainly be a best-case scenario but, again, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here.
At the very least, these are very solid numbers in the pre-Thanksgiving weekend. What’s more, Disney’s “Moana 2” is set to arrive the day before Thanksgiving, with the animated sequel expected to pull in $100 million or more across that five-day stretch. That means the holiday frame, overall, could put 2023’s Thanksgiving pretty decent box office haul to shame. It’s all good news, frankly.
It’s no secret that 2024 has been lagging a bit at the box office compared to 2023. The first half of the year was devoid of attractive releases thanks to last year’s strikes, with several major blockbusters such as “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” majorly disappointing. Things have been looking up since mid-summer but October marked yet another downturn, with “Joker: Folie a Deux” flat-out bombing and “Venom: The Last Dance” proving to be a relative disappointment. All of this to say, this Thanksgiving boom is a most welcome boon for theater owners out there.